Inter
vs
Club Brugge KV
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KV.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Inter, 22% draw, 27% Club Brugge KV — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Inter 2.51, Club Brugge KV 1.71.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Inter vs Club Brugge KV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 51% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Club Brugge KV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 17A. DioufM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 10Lautaro MartínezF
- 9M. ThuramF
- 46L. BovioD
- 8P. SučićM
- 5A. StankovićM
- 99D. SpenceD
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 28B. PavardD
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 14A. BonnyF
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 1Y. SommerG
- 64K. SabbeD
- 58J. SpileersD
- 44B. MecheleD
- 65J. SeysD
- 9Carlos ForbsM
- 10H. VetlesenM
- 8F. PottsM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 11Jan VirgiliM
- 7N. TresoldiF
- 67M. DiakhonF
- 29N. JackersG
- 3Lee Han-BeomD
- 80F. LemaréchalM
- 39M. RobberechtsF
- 41H. SiquetD
- 16C. TsawaM
- 81Argus Vanden DriesscheG
- 77A. VasovicF
Form going into Inter vs Club Brugge KV
Inter
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
Club Brugge KV
- L2-3Aston Villa8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Club Brugge KV
- 13 October 2026Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KVUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Inter and Club Brugge KV
Inter
GoalsAssists
- Lautaro Martínez21
Club Brugge KV
GoalsAssists
- N. Tresoldi40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.51 goals for Inter and 1.71 for Club Brugge KV; the game produced 3 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Nicolo Tresoldi 30' (Club Brugge KV), Lautaro Martínez 44' (Inter), Nicolo Tresoldi 63' (Club Brugge KV), Nicolo Tresoldi 74' (Club Brugge KV), Lautaro Martínez 81' (Inter), Romeo Vermant 87' (Club Brugge KV), Ange-Yoan Bonny 90' (Inter).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Inter against 1.71 for Club Brugge KV. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.82/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.55/0.71 for Club Brugge KV.