Atletico Madrid
vs
Manchester United
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Atletico Madrid, 22% draw, 26% Manchester United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.32, Manchester United 1.50.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 46J. CastilloM
- 15J. DavidF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 11A. LookmanF
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 1J. MussoG
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 15L. YoroD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 26A. HeavenD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 20C. BalebaM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 19B. MbeumoF
- 57Daniel ArmerD
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 12K. DarlowG
- 4M. de LigtD
- 16A. DialloF
- 39T. FletcherM
- 31S. LaceyF
- 5H. MaguireD
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
Manchester United
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- 13 October 2026Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League
- 1 August 2026Manchester United 2–1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
- 30 July 2022Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 30 July 2022Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 15 March 2022Manchester United 0–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 23 February 2022Atletico Madrid 1–1 Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.32 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.50 for Manchester United; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Pablo Barrios Rivas 1' (Atletico Madrid), Ademola Lookman 79' (Atletico Madrid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 1.50 for Manchester United. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.39/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.86 for Manchester United.