Lens
vs
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Lens 0-2 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Lens, 23% draw, 45% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 4.35 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Lens 1.82, Sporting CP 2.24.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Lens vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lens vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40R. RisserG
- 25I. GaniouD
- 6S. BaidooD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 23Saud AbdulhamidM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 14M. UdolM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 28J. KadileM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 2R. AguilarD
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 9T. HazardM
- 31S. SagnanD
- 22M. SkóraśF
- 38M. SoaresM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 30KaiqueG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 8João SimõesM
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoF
- 97L. SuárezF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 18M. ZekriD
- 55Ibrahima BaD
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
Form going into Lens vs Sporting CP
Lens
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
Sporting CP
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lens vs Sporting CP
- 13 October 2026Lens 0–2 Sporting CPUEFA Champions League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.82 goals for Lens and 2.24 for Sporting CP; the game produced 0 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luis Suárez 22' (Sporting CP), Issa Doumbia 74' (Sporting CP).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Lens against 2.24 for Sporting CP. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.8 for Sporting CP.