Arsenal
vs
Lille
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Lille.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Arsenal, 25% draw, 17% Lille — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 1.87, Lille 0.80.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Arsenal vs Lille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Lille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 12J. TimberD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 41D. RiceM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 13KepaG
- 56M. DowmanF
- 74M. HashiM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 30I. MeslierG
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 7B. SakaF
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 38M. GoffiD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 21B. AndréM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 17N. MukauM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 18A. UedaF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 2L. SrdanovicD
- 50Thomas SajousG
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 28G. PerrinF
- 19B. ÖnalF
- 23T. NianzouD
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 9O. GiroudF
Form going into Arsenal vs Lille
Arsenal
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Lille
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Lille
- 13 October 2026Arsenal 3–0 LilleUEFA Champions League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.87 goals for Arsenal and 0.80 for Lille; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jurriën Timber 64' (Arsenal), Eberechi Eze 67' (Arsenal), Bukayo Saka 71' (Arsenal).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.80 for Lille. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.69 for Lille.