RB Leipzig
vs
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: RB Leipzig 1-0 PSV Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% RB Leipzig, 22% draw, 28% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.00, 4.55 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.32, PSV Eindhoven 1.62.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26M. VandevoordtG
- 17R. BakuD
- 4W. OrbánD
- 23C. LukebaD
- 22D. RaumD
- 21N. El AynaouiM
- 6E. BanzuziM
- 10B. GrudaM
- 28C. NkunkuM
- 7A. NusaM
- 40RômuloF
- 11J. BakayokoF
- 3M. EstèveD
- 35Max FinkgräfeD
- 27T. GomisF
- 39B. HenrichsD
- 16L. KlostermannD
- 2A. KonéD
- 30A. MaksimoviÄM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 18F. KostićD
- 24K. SanoM
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 5I. PerišićM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 21S. MijnansF
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 27D. ManF
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 31N. FernandezM
- 42S. CornecionM
- 23M. HansenF
Form going into RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
RB Leipzig
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
- 13 October 2026RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.32 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.62 for PSV Eindhoven; the game produced 1 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Brajan Gruda 75' (RB Leipzig).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.62 for PSV Eindhoven. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.9 for PSV Eindhoven.