Viking
vs
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Viking 3-3 Bayern München.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Viking, 23% draw, 50% Bayern München — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Viking 1.44, Bayern München 2.14.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Champions League predictions
Model insights: Viking vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Viking vs Bayern München
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. ØstbøG
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 25H. FalchenerD
- 28K. HaugenD
- 16H. BjørdalM
- 8J. BellM
- 7K. AskildsenM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 22E. BotheimF
- 10Z. TripićF
- 17E. BasseyD
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 30Ľ. BelkoG
- 19A. CosicF
- 27J. DalandD
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 33J. HansenM
- 2H. HaugenD
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
- 40J. UrbigG
- 27K. LaimerD
- 4J. TahD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 11N. BrownD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 8T. BischofM
- 17M. OliseM
- 42L. KarlM
- 14L. DíazM
- 9H. KaneF
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 26S. UlreichG
- 44J. StanišićD
- 39Bara NdiayeM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 38D. Podar-StiubeG
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 1M. NeuerG
- 21H. ItoD
Form going into Viking vs Bayern München
Viking
- L1-3away to VfB Stuttgart9 September 2026
Bayern München
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Bayern München
- 13 October 2026Viking 3–3 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Viking and Bayern München
Viking
GoalsAssists
- Z. Tripić32
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane31
- M. Olise21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Viking and 2.14 for Bayern München; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Gianni Stensness 2' (Viking), Peter Christiansen 38' (Viking), Harry Kane 54' (Bayern München), Harry Kane 60' (Bayern München), Luis Díaz 71' (Bayern München), Herman Haugen 90' (Viking).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Viking against 2.14 for Bayern München. Viking's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.68 for Bayern München.