League Stage - 2 · 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Villarreal vs Napoli UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Villarreal 3-1 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Villarreal, 25% draw, 36% Napoli — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Villarreal 1.75, Napoli 1.68.

Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Villarreal vs Napoli

68%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 8%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Villarreal at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Villarreal99%Draw1%Napoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Amir Rrahmani
⚽Georges Mikautadze
23'
⚽Álvaro Santiago Mouriño Gonzálezassist: Gerard Moreno
26'
Georges Mikautadze
33'
55'
Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
60'
🔁Giovane Santana Do Nascimentoout: Noa Lang
60'
🔁Scott McTominayout: Leonardo Spinazzola
61'
🔁Matteo Politanoout: David Neres
62'
Kevin De Bruyne
🔁Gerard Morenoout: Tani Oluwaseyi
63'
🔁Georges Mikautadzeout: Alex Freeman
63'
Nathan-Dylan Saliba
67'
🔁Alberto Moleiroout: Juan Foyth
68'
72'
🔁Billy Gilmourout: Stanislav Lobotka
72'
🔁Rafael Marin Zamoraout: Lorenzo Lucca
🔁Santi Comesañaout: Ayoze Pérez
83'
🔁Pape Gueyeout: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
84'
85'
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
⚽Tani Oluwaseyiassist: Ayoze Pérez
86'

Match stats — Villarreal vs Napoli

52%Possession48%
16Shots9
4On target2
4Corners4
1.33xG1.76

Goals against chances

Villarreal3 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Napoli1 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Villarreal 4-4-2
  • 1Luíz JúniorG
  • 15S. MouriñoD
  • 6Pau NavarroD
  • 12Renato VeigaD
  • 20Carlos RomeroD
  • 24N. SalibaM
  • 14Santi ComesañaM
  • 18P. GueyeM
  • 10Alberto MoleiroM
  • 7Gerard MorenoF
  • 9G. MikautadzeF
Substitutes
  • 13Rubén GómezG
  • 3A. FreemanD
  • 8J. FoythD
  • 27N. El JmiliF
  • 5A. DiattaM
  • 2Logan CostaD
  • 23Sergi CardonaD
  • 11Ilias AkhomachF
  • 16C. MaciaM
Coach: Iñigo Pérez
Napoli 3-4-2-1
  • 32V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 5B. BadiashileD
  • 21M. PolitanoM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 22G. Di LorenzoM
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 23GiovaneM
  • 19R. HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 20L. LuccaF
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 7David NeresF
  • 70N. LangF
  • 68S. LobotkaM
Coach: M. Allegri

Form going into Villarreal vs Napoli

Villarreal

  • L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026

Napoli

  • L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Villarreal210154+13
32Napoli200214-30

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Napoli

  • 13 October 2026Villarreal 3–1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
  • 17 December 2022Napoli 2–3 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 February 2016Napoli 1–1 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
  • 18 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 NapoliUEFA Europa League
  • 7 December 2011Villarreal 0–2 NapoliUEFA Champions League
  • 27 September 2011Napoli 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League

The full Villarreal vs Napoli record →

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for Villarreal and 1.68 for Napoli; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Amir Rrahmani 8' (Napoli), Georges Mikautadze 23' (Villarreal), Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González 26' (Villarreal), Tani Oluwaseyi 86' (Villarreal).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.68 for Napoli. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.7 for Napoli.