League Stage - 2 · 13 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Baku Olympic Stadium, Baku
Referee: Sebastian Gishamer
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sabah FA 2-0 Slavia Praha.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sabah FA, 25% draw, 45% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Sabah FA 1.45, Slavia Praha 1.86.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha

65%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 9%2-1 7%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Slavia Praha at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabah FA99%Draw1%Slavia Praha0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Veljko Simić
14'
•Kaheem Parris
17'
⚽Kaheem Parrisassist: Ivan Lepinjica
49'
62'
🔁Michal Sadílekout: Wiktor Nowak
62'
🔁Tomáš Holešout: Mubarak Suleiman
Steve Solvet
66'
67'
Emmanuel Ayaosi
🔁Steve Solvetout: Rahman Dashdamirov
72'
🔁Kaheem Parrisout: Patrick Orphe Mbina
73'
🔁Du Queirozout: Christian Nwachukwu
73'
73'
🔁Tomáš Vlčekout: Samuel Isife
73'
🔁Tomáš Chorýout: Mojmír Chytil
Akim Zedadka
74'
75'
🔁Ange N'Guessanout: Oskar Kubiak
77'
Oskar Kubiak
🔁Veljko Simićout: Abdulakh khaybulaev
86'
⚽Joy Lance Mickelsassist: Patrick Orphe Mbina
88'

Match stats — Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha

45%Possession55%
13Shots18
6On target8
3Corners6
1.38xG2.16

Goals against chances

Sabah FA2 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Slavia Praha0 from 2.16 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sabah FA 4-2-3-1
  • 92S. PokatilovG
  • 80A. ZedadkaD
  • 3S. SolvetD
  • 4A. McCarthyD
  • 27T. PuchaczD
  • 7U. RahmonaliyevM
  • 13I. LepinjicaM
  • 11K. ParrisM
  • 37Du QueirozM
  • 21V. SimićM
  • 20J. MickelsF
Substitutes
  • 5R. DaşdəmirovD
  • 88Rodrigo FernandesM
  • 10A. IsaevM
  • 33Erivaldo AlmeidaD
  • 6A. XaybulayevM
  • 99P. MbinaF
  • 94R. MirzəmmədovG
  • 17T. MütəllimovD
  • 8C. NwachukwuF
Coach: V. Dambrauskas
Slavia Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 35J. MarkovičG
  • 3T. HolešD
  • 4D. ZimaD
  • 6A. N'GuessanD
  • 27T. VlčekD
  • 16D. MosesM
  • 23M. SadílekM
  • 20E. AyaosiM
  • 17L. ProvodM
  • 10D. ŠturmM
  • 25T. ChorýF
Substitutes
  • 22T. DiakitéM
  • 29N. DomchakG
  • 14S. IsifeD
  • 30W. NowakM
  • 60Petr PotměšilF
  • 40Adam RezekG
  • 47D. BarcotD
  • 8O. KubiakD
  • 15M. E. SuleimanM
Coach: J. Trpišovský

Form going into Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha

Sabah FA

  • L0-4away to Manchester United10 September 2026

Slavia Praha

  • L2-3Lens10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Sabah FA210124-23
31Slavia Praha200225-30

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha

  • 13 October 2026Sabah FA 2–0 Slavia PrahaUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Slavia Praha

Sabah FA

GoalsAssists

  • J. Mickels41
  • V. Simić30

Slavia Praha

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for Sabah FA and 1.86 for Slavia Praha; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kaheem Parris 49' (Sabah FA), Joy Lance Mickels 88' (Sabah FA).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sabah FA against 1.86 for Slavia Praha. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.74 for Slavia Praha.