Inter Miami
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 2-0 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Inter Miami, 22% draw, 20% New York City FC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.36, New York City FC 1.21.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St. ClairG
- 2G. LujánD
- 5CasemiroD
- 16MicaelD
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuárezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 37M. FalcónD
- 17I. FrayD
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 11Riquelme FillipiF
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 88A. ShawM
- 15F. CaicedoD
- 20S. MoralesM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 9B. TraoréM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 88M. JonesF
- 17H. WolfF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 20Luighi HanriF
Form going into Inter Miami vs New York City FC
Inter Miami
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
New York City FC
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
- Inter Miami failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York City FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | +20 | 52 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs New York City FC
- 22 March 2026New York City FC 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 29 November 2025Inter Miami 5–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2025New York City FC 0–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Inter Miami 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York City FC 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2024Inter Miami 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and New York City FC
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2311
- L. Suárez143
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau154
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.36 goals for Inter Miami and 1.21 for New York City FC; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Germán Berterame 20' (Inter Miami), Rodrigo De Paul 45' (Inter Miami).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.21 for New York City FC. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.17 for New York City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.