CF Montreal
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: CF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% CF Montreal, 28% draw, 37% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.28, Atlanta United FC 1.35.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlanta United FC at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. BrezaG
- 27D. BugajD
- 2J. NealD
- 5B. CraigD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 7D. PereiraM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 10A. SánchezM
- 23N. StreitM
- 14D. RíosF
- 22V. LoturiM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 41S. KeitaG
- 24E. MoralesD
- 6S. PietteM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 26I. LosenkoM
- 29O. EscobarF
- 25F. AmayaM
- 1L. HoyosG
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 14M. AmaroM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 35A. FortuneM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 36B. EmboloF
- 22F. PicaultF
- 48C. SanchezM
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 4E. MihajD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 16Adrian GillM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 7S. AlzateM
- 30C. TogashiF
Form going into CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
Atlanta United FC
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
- 2 May 2026Atlanta United FC 3–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Atlanta United FC 3–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2024CF Montreal 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Atlanta United FC 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024CF Montreal 1–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.28 goals for CF Montreal and 1.35 for Atlanta United FC; the game produced 0 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Miguel Almirón 22' (Atlanta United FC), Giuliano Galoppo 41' (Atlanta United FC), Breel Embolo 60' (Atlanta United FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlanta United FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for CF Montreal against 1.35 for Atlanta United FC. CF Montreal's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.39 for Atlanta United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.