Toronto FC
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Toronto FC, 23% draw, 34% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 2.33, 4.35 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Toronto FC 2.14, Orlando City SC 1.84.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. GavranG
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 7T. CorbeanuM
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 6N. DorschM
- 20D. SallóiM
- 9J. SargentF
- 90L. MorganF
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 96R. ChukwuD
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 11D. EtienneF
- 19K. FranklinD
- 38J. GilmanD
- 10D. MihailovićM
- 27A. PiedrahitaF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 20E. AtuestaD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 57IagoD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 77I. AnguloM
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 23Harvey SarajianM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 10M. OjedaF
- 21N. MillerD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 11TiagoF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 9D. DikeF
- 3Adrián MarínD
Form going into Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
Orlando City SC
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Toronto FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toronto FC | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 33 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
- 12 September 2026Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 October 2023Toronto FC 0–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda132
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.14 goals for Toronto FC and 1.84 for Orlando City SC; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lewis Morgan 26' (Toronto FC), Martin Ojeda 45' (Orlando City SC), Theo Corbeanu 49' (Toronto FC), Antoine Griezmann 76' (Orlando City SC), Daryl Dike 83' (Orlando City SC), Matheus Pereira de Souza 89' (Toronto FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toronto FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.84 for Orlando City SC. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.77 for Orlando City SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.