Atlanta United FC
vs
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Atlanta United FC 1–2 Inter Miami
The model makes it 25% Atlanta United FC, 23% draw, 52% Inter Miami — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.42, Inter Miami 2.23.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Inter Miami are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atlanta United FC are 14th on 30 points from 29 games; Inter Miami are 2nd on 52 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to CF Montreal.
- Inter Miami have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to New York City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Miami 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Inter Miami 2–2 Atlanta United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC
- W3-0away to CF Montreal14 October 2026
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
Inter Miami
- W2-0New York City FC14 October 2026
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC
- D. Chicaknee injury
- W. Reillyankle injury
Inter Miami
- M. Silvettiinjury
- T. Allendeknee injury
- Y. Brightfoot injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | +20 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlanta United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
Inter Miami
Chance to finish in the top four · 98% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- 5 September 2026Inter Miami 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 October 2025Inter Miami 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Atlanta United FC 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 10 November 2024Inter Miami 2–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 26 October 2024Inter Miami 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2311
- L. Suárez143
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.76 for Inter Miami. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Atlanta United FC and 2.23 for Inter Miami. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Miami rate 1.10 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 2.23 for Inter Miami. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.36 for Inter Miami.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlanta United FC at home · Inter Miami away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Atlanta United FC 27, Inter Miami 27.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Inter Miami have let in 8 there.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Atlanta United FC have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Atlanta United FC
- vs Chicago Fire24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at New York City FC28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- vs Toronto FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- at New York Red Bulls7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 30%
Inter Miami
- at New York Red Bulls24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
- vs FC Cincinnati28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 69%
- at New England Revolution2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs Charlotte7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.