New York City FC
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York City FC 1–0 Atlanta United FC
The model makes it 47% New York City FC, 28% draw, 25% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: New York City FC 1.56, Atlanta United FC 0.97.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- New York City FC are 10th on 33 points from 29 games; Atlanta United FC are 14th on 30 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York City FC are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inter Miami.
- Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to CF Montreal.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
New York City FC
- L0-2away to Inter Miami14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
Atlanta United FC
- W3-0away to CF Montreal14 October 2026
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New York City FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Atlanta United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
- 26 September 2026Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2025New York City FC 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 March 2025Atlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2024New York City FC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 June 2023Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Atlanta United FC
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau154
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York City FC carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.41 for Atlanta United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for New York City FC and 0.97 for Atlanta United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York City FC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlanta United FC rate 0.57 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for New York City FC against 0.97 for Atlanta United FC. New York City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.39 for Atlanta United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York City FC at home · Atlanta United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York City FC 27, Atlanta United FC 27.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Atlanta United FC have let in 8 there.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); New York City FC have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
New York City FC
- vs CF Montreal31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 55%
- at DC United7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 37%
Atlanta United FC
- vs Toronto FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- at New York Red Bulls7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.