MLS predictions & fixtures

Saturday 17 October — 7 matches

18:30 UTC Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte — model 53% / 23% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.35 · 4.17. Edge: Philadelphia Union
20:30 UTC Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City — model 31% / 24% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.17 · 2.22. Edge: St. Louis City
23:30 UTC Orlando City SC vs DC United — model 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.55 · 3.85. Evenly matched
23:30 UTC New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched
23:30 UTC New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
23:30 UTC Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami — model 25% / 23% / 52%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 4.35 · 1.92. One-sided: Inter Miami
23:30 UTC New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire — model 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 4.00 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Sunday 18 October — 8 matches

00:30 UTC Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake — model 37% / 25% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.70 · 4.00 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach
00:30 UTC Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps — model 26% / 25% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 4.00 · 2.04. One-sided: Vancouver Whitecaps
02:30 UTC Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. Edge: Seattle Sounders
02:30 UTC San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC — model 24% / 26% / 50%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 3.85 · 2.00. One-sided: Nashville SC
02:30 UTC Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego — model 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 4.00 · 2.94. Evenly matched
02:30 UTC Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
21:00 UTC FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew — model 43% / 23% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.35 · 2.94. Evenly matched

Wednesday 21 October — 1 match

23:00 UTC FC Cincinnati vs DC United — model 51% / 22% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.55 · 3.70. Evenly matched

Saturday 24 October — 7 matches

17:30 UTC CF Montreal vs Nashville SC — model 16% / 23% / 61%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 6.25 · 4.35 · 1.64. One-sided: Nashville SC
19:30 UTC Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched
21:30 UTC New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami — model 25% / 23% / 52%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 4.35 · 1.92. One-sided: Inter Miami
23:30 UTC Orlando City SC vs New York City FC — model 41% / 25% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 4.00 · 2.94. Evenly matched
23:30 UTC Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Edge: Philadelphia Union
23:30 UTC Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Edge: Chicago Fire
23:30 UTC DC United vs FC Cincinnati — model 40% / 24% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 4.17 · 2.78. Evenly matched

Sunday 25 October — 7 matches

00:30 UTC FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — model 47% / 25% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 4.00 · 3.57. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City — model 29% / 26% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 3.85 · 2.22. Edge: St. Louis City
00:30 UTC Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps — model 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.70 · 2.22. Edge: Vancouver Whitecaps
00:30 UTC Sporting Kansas City vs Austin — model 38% / 25% / 37%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 4.00 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
02:30 UTC Portland Timbers vs Charlotte — model 36% / 25% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 4.00 · 2.56. Tight game · draw in reach
02:30 UTC San Diego vs Seattle Sounders — model 41% / 26% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.85 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Monday 26 October — 1 match

01:00 UTC Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Los Angeles FC

Wednesday 28 October — 5 matches

23:30 UTC Toronto FC vs DC United — model 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.13 · 3.85 · 3.70. Evenly matched
23:30 UTC New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Evenly matched
23:30 UTC New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Edge: New England Revolution
23:30 UTC Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati — model 69% / 15% / 16%, most likely 3-1, fair odds 1.45 · 6.67 · 6.25. Edge: Inter Miami
23:30 UTC Charlotte vs CF Montreal — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. One-sided: Charlotte

Thursday 29 October — 9 matches

00:30 UTC FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew — model 46% / 25% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 4.00 · 3.45. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC — model 52% / 22% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.55 · 3.85. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City — model 56% / 21% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.76 · 4.35. Edge: Minnesota United FC
00:30 UTC Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Edge: Nashville SC
00:30 UTC Austin vs Real Salt Lake — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23. Evenly matched
00:30 UTC St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers — model 59% / 21% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.69 · 4.76 · 5.00. Edge: St. Louis City
02:30 UTC Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched
02:30 UTC San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids — model 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.17 · 3.85 · 3.57. Evenly matched
02:30 UTC Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego — model 60% / 21% / 19%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.76 · 5.26. Edge: Vancouver Whitecaps

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14–15 October: the model called the result of 7 of 15 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.

Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC — the model said 57% / 22% / 21%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte — the model said 37% / 26% / 37%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution — the model said 43% / 23% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC — the model said 43% / 24% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC — the model said 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
DC United 2–1 New York Red Bulls — the model said 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders — the model said 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union — the model said 41% / 24% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps — the model said 42% / 25% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City — the model said 75% / 16% / 9%, most likely 3-0: result correct.
Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC — the model said 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes — the model said 38% / 26% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Los Angeles FC 3–1 Austin — the model said 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers — the model said 40% / 24% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo — the model said 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.