Real Salt Lake
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Real Salt Lake, 27% draw, 35% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.52, San Jose Earthquakes 1.45.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 3K. HenryD
- 11D. MarczukM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 22S. SolansF
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 29S. JunquaD
- 98A. KatránisD
- 34L. MoisaM
- 19A. PiolF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 1A. GunnG
- 3P. MarieD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 19P. JuddF
- 7O. BoudaF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 21N. BuckM
- 11T. WernerF
- 5D. MunieD
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Salt Lake had three goals or more.
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 27 July 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 23 April 2023Real Salt Lake 3–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.45 for San Jose Earthquakes; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luc De Fougerolles 79' (Real Salt Lake), Jack Jasinski 90' (San Jose Earthquakes).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Salt Lake the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Real Salt Lake against 1.45 for San Jose Earthquakes. Real Salt Lake's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.43 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.