Nashville SC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Nashville SC 4-0 Sporting Kansas City.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% Nashville SC, 15% draw, 8% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Nashville SC 3.19, Sporting Kansas City 0.79.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 77% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99B. SchwakeG
- 31A. NajarD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 3M. WoledziD
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 20E. TagsethM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 11E. SaadM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 8P. YazbekM
- 6B. AcostaM
- 22J. BauerD
- 2D. LovitzD
- 41W. MadrigalF
- 5J. MaherD
- 14S. MohammedM
- 19A. MuylM
- 1J. WillisG
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 2I. JamesD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 99J. ReidD
- 11André LuizM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 93M. SuleymanovM
- 24R. RamosF
- 29S. ReidF
- 23E. BartlowD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 7CapitaF
- 8J. DavisM
- 14C. HarrisF
- 18E. KarićD
- 19T. CalheiraF
Form going into Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
- W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- D3-3Portland Timbers11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Seattle Sounders2 October 2026
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
What these results say
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Nashville SC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 63 | 22 | +41 | 66 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
- 30 January 2024Nashville SC 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityFriendlies Clubs
- 21 September 2023Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 19 June 2022Nashville SC 1–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 10 April 2022Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 11 October 2020Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge161
- H. Mukhtar146
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 3.19 goals for Nashville SC and 0.79 for Sporting Kansas City; the game produced 4 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Hany Mukhtar 10' (Nashville SC), Sam Surridge 17' (Nashville SC), Andy Najar 29' (Nashville SC), Warren Madrigal 90' (Nashville SC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.19 expected goals for Nashville SC against 0.79 for Sporting Kansas City. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.02 for Sporting Kansas City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.