Los Angeles FC
vs
Austin
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 3-1 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Los Angeles FC, 25% draw, 20% Austin — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.92, Austin 0.94.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 33A. LongD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 6Igor JesusM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 9A. SiebM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 19T. BoydF
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 12T. HasalG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 91N. TafariD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 43ThayllonF
- 20S. VasquezM
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 9B. VázquezF
- 11F. TorresF
- 15J. BellD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 12D. LasG
- 77P. PłachetaM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 10M. UzuniF
- 22Chris ApplewhiteD
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1Vancouver Whitecaps11 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
Austin
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 32 | +15 | 45 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Austin
- 22 March 2026Austin 0–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2025Austin 1–4 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 October 2025Los Angeles FC 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 12 October 2025Austin 1–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025Los Angeles FC 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Los Angeles FC 1–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Austin
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga155
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.92 goals for Los Angeles FC and 0.94 for Austin; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Denis Bouanga 52' (Los Angeles FC), Brandon Vazquez 66' (Austin), Denis Bouanga 67' (Los Angeles FC), Son Heung-min 72' (Los Angeles FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 0.94 for Austin. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.56 for Austin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.