San Diego
vs
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Diego 3-3 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% San Diego, 27% draw, 33% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Diego 1.55, Houston Dynamo 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 26M. DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 36David MimbangM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 31J. BondG
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 21F. NegriD
- 6ArturM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 9L. FosterF
- 22M. AranaM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 14D. HolmesM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 34A. ReschD
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 4M. SaracchiD
Form going into San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
San Diego
- L1-4away to New York Red Bulls10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
Houston Dynamo
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
What these results say
- San Diego did not win any of these 4 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Diego | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
- 23 April 2026Houston Dynamo 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2025Houston Dynamo 2–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2025San Diego 3–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Diego and Houston Dynamo
San Diego
GoalsAssists
- M. Ingvartsen123
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme146
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.55 goals for San Diego and 1.35 for Houston Dynamo; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Anders Dreyer 20' (San Diego), Cédric Bakambu 22' (San Diego), Guilherme Augusto 24' (Houston Dynamo), Mateusz Bogusz 33' (Houston Dynamo), Guilherme Augusto 37' (Houston Dynamo), Gabriel Pirani 86' (San Diego).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Diego the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for San Diego against 1.35 for Houston Dynamo. San Diego's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.16 for Houston Dynamo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.