Minnesota United FC
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 1–2 St. Louis City
The model makes it 31% Minnesota United FC, 24% draw, 45% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.65, St. Louis City 2.09.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to St. Louis City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Minnesota United FC are 13th on 31 points from 29 games; St. Louis City are 2nd on 51 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Minnesota United FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Colorado Rapids.
- St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Vancouver Whitecaps.
- Last 5 meetings: Minnesota United FC 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
St. Louis City
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps15 October 2026
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
- A. Markanichconcussion
- A. Smirknee injury
- P. Stroudmuscle injury
St. Louis City
- Celio Pompeuknee injury
- C. WalleminjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 31 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Minnesota United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
St. Louis City
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 26% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- 13 September 2026St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah152
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro175
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.65 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Minnesota United FC and 2.09 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.85 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Minnesota United FC a 0% chance of the title and St. Louis City 25.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 2.09 for St. Louis City. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for St. Louis City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Minnesota United FC at home · St. Louis City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Minnesota United FC 29, St. Louis City 29.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); St. Louis City have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Minnesota United FC
- at Houston Dynamo25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
- vs Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 56%
- at Los Angeles FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs San Jose Earthquakes8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
St. Louis City
- at Real Salt Lake25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs Portland Timbers29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 59%
- vs San Diego31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 58%
- at Houston Dynamo8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.