Houston Dynamo
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Houston Dynamo 2–1 Minnesota United FC
The model makes it 47% Houston Dynamo, 26% draw, 27% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.77, Minnesota United FC 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Houston Dynamo are 5th on 46 points from 29 games; Minnesota United FC are 13th on 31 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Houston Dynamo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to San Diego.
- Minnesota United FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Colorado Rapids.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo
- D3-3away to San Diego15 October 2026
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
Minnesota United FC
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
What these results say
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 46 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Houston Dynamo
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
Minnesota United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC
- 11 October 2026Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Minnesota United FC 3–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Houston Dynamo 2–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024Minnesota United FC 1–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Houston Dynamo 0–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme146
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.42 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.20 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Houston Dynamo rate 0.57 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.71 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Houston Dynamo a 0.4% chance of the title and Minnesota United FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.20 for Minnesota United FC. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.69 for Minnesota United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Houston Dynamo at home · Minnesota United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Houston Dynamo 29, Minnesota United FC 29.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Minnesota United FC have let in 6 there.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Houston Dynamo
- at Seattle Sounders29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- at Portland Timbers2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- vs St. Louis City8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Minnesota United FC
- vs Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 56%
- at Los Angeles FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs San Jose Earthquakes8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.