New England Revolution
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New England Revolution 2–1 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 42% New England Revolution, 25% draw, 33% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.79, Chicago Fire 1.53.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- New England Revolution are 3rd on 49 points from 29 games; Chicago Fire are 4th on 48 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FC Cincinnati.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Philadelphia Union.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Chicago Fire 1–2 New England Revolution.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
- W3-2away to FC Cincinnati14 October 2026
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
Chicago Fire
- L1-3Philadelphia Union15 October 2026
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
- A. Yusufmuscle injury
- J. Harrisonlower-body injury
- L. Campanahamstring injury
- M. Fofanalower-body injury
Chicago Fire
- A. Francoknee injury
- A. Mekvabishvililower-body injury
- J. Elliottsuspended (red card)
- R. Lodlower-body injury
- S. Rogerslower-body injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 49 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New England Revolution
Chance to finish in the top four · 59% today
Chicago Fire
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
- 13 September 2026Chicago Fire 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 7 September 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 20 May 2025New England Revolution 1–3 Chicago FireUS Open Cup
- 5 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New England Revolution carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.57 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for New England Revolution and 1.53 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New England Revolution rate 0.71 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.78 and 1.37.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for New England Revolution against 1.53 for Chicago Fire. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.37 for Chicago Fire.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New England Revolution at home · Chicago Fire away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New England Revolution 27, Chicago Fire 27.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 12 there.
Chicago Fire score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); New England Revolution have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
New England Revolution
- at Philadelphia Union24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
- vs New York Red Bulls28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs Inter Miami2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Orlando City SC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Chicago Fire
- at Atlanta United FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 39%
- vs Orlando City SC29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
- at Colorado Rapids1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 38%
- vs Columbus Crew7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.