Atletico Paranaense
vs
Palmeiras
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Palmeiras
The model makes it 35% Atletico Paranaense, 28% draw, 37% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.29, Palmeiras 1.33.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 30 games; Palmeiras are 2nd on 63 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Paranaense are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Chapecoense.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Corinthians.
- Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
Palmeiras
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
- W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
- C. Teraninactive
- Dantasinactive
- G. Benavidezmuscle injury
- K. A. Calderon Vargasinactive
Palmeiras
- A. Giaysuspended (yellow cards)
- G. Gomezsuspended (yellow cards)
- Jefteknee injury
- Vitor Roqueinactive
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 35 | +14 | 53 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | +30 | 63 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Paranaense
Chance to finish in the top four · 75% today
Palmeiras
Chance to win the league · 41% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras
- 19 April 2026Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 1 September 2024Atletico Paranaense 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 12 May 2024Palmeiras 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 5 November 2023Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 2 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 October 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López94
- Maurício71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Paranaense carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7.04 for Palmeiras. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.33 for Palmeiras. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Paranaense rate 1.10 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palmeiras rate 1.07 and 0.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Paranaense a 0.1% chance of the title and Palmeiras 41.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.33 for Palmeiras. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/0.74 for Palmeiras.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Paranaense at home · Palmeiras away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Paranaense 30, Palmeiras 30.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Palmeiras have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Paranaense
- at Vitoria24 Oct · Serie Awin 40%
- at Gremio30 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Vasco da Gama4 Nov · Serie Awin 55%
- at Flamengo18 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
- vs Remo22 Nov · Serie Awin 61%
Palmeiras
- vs Fluminense22 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 54%
- vs RB Bragantino24 Oct · Serie Awin 60%
- at Santos28 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Remo5 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
- at Cruzeiro18 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.