Gremio
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Gremio 1–0 Cruzeiro
The model makes it 36% Gremio, 28% draw, 36% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.32, Cruzeiro 1.33.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Gremio and Cruzeiro are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 30 games; Cruzeiro are 6th on 48 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Gremio have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Internacional.
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to RB Bragantino.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruzeiro 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Gremio 3–1 Cruzeiro.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Gremio
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo7 October 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
- L1-2Vasco da Gama12 September 2026
Cruzeiro
- L2-4away to RB Bragantino13 October 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo8 October 2026
- W3-1away to Vitoria20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos13 September 2026
- W3-1Atletico Paranaense6 September 2026
What these results say
- Gremio did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gremio scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruzeiro had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gremio
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
Cruzeiro
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
- 12 July 2026Gremio 3–1 CruzeiroFriendlies Clubs
- 18 April 2026Cruzeiro 2–0 GremioSerie A
- 5 November 2025Gremio 0–1 CruzeiroSerie A
- 13 July 2025Cruzeiro 4–1 GremioSerie A
- 28 November 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 10 July 2024Gremio 0–2 CruzeiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Cruzeiro
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius101
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Pereira95
- Kaio Jorge82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.81 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Gremio and 1.33 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.74 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.03 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruzeiro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gremio the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Gremio against 1.33 for Cruzeiro. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.13 for Cruzeiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gremio at home · Cruzeiro away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Gremio 30, Cruzeiro 30.
Gremio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Cruzeiro have let in 8 there.
Cruzeiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Gremio have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gremio
- at Coritiba26 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Atletico Paranaense30 Oct · Serie Awin 34%
- at Flamengo4 Nov · Serie Awin 12%
- vs Bahia18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Santos22 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
Cruzeiro
- vs Remo23 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
- at Atletico Mineiro29 Oct · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Bahia6 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- vs Palmeiras18 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at Chapecoense22 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.