Bahia
vs
Flamengo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bahia 0–1 Flamengo
The model makes it 31% Bahia, 29% draw, 40% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bahia 1.14, Flamengo 1.38.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Flamengo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30 games; Flamengo are top on 64 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Bahia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mirassol.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fluminense.
- Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Flamengo 2–0 Bahia.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bahia vs Flamengo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bahia vs Flamengo
Bahia
- W1-0Mirassol11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
Flamengo
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Remo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 49 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 64 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bahia
Chance to finish in the top four · 23% today
Flamengo
Chance to win the league · 59% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Flamengo
- 19 April 2026Flamengo 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 5 October 2025Bahia 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
- 11 May 2025Flamengo 1–0 BahiaSerie A
- 5 October 2024Bahia 0–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 13 September 2024Flamengo 1–0 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 29 August 2024Bahia 0–1 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Bahia and Flamengo
Bahia
GoalsAssists
- Luciano Juba101
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bahia carry a model rating of 6.78 against 7.06 for Flamengo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Bahia and 1.38 for Flamengo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bahia rate 0.91 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Flamengo rate 1.19 and 0.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bahia a 0% chance of the title and Flamengo 58.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bahia against 1.38 for Flamengo. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.79 for Flamengo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bahia at home · Flamengo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bahia 30, Flamengo 30.
Bahia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Flamengo have let in 3 there.
Flamengo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Bahia have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bahia
- at Santos25 Oct · Serie Awin 29%
- vs Sao Paulo29 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
- at Cruzeiro6 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Gremio18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Coritiba22 Nov · Serie Awin 59%
Flamengo
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.