Fluminense
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fluminense 2–1 Santos
The model makes it 52% Fluminense, 25% draw, 23% Santos — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.91, Santos 1.11.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 30 games; Santos are 8th on 42 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Fluminense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Santos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Santos 2–3 Fluminense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fluminense vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fluminense vs Santos
Fluminense
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama6 September 2026
Santos
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
- D2-2Flamengo8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
What these results say
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Santos had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 51 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fluminense
Chance to finish in the top four · 70% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Santos
- 19 April 2026Santos 2–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 31 August 2025Santos 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 13 April 2025Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 29 November 2023Santos 0–3 FluminenseSerie A
- 29 July 2023Fluminense 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 1 August 2022Santos 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fluminense and Santos
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa143
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fluminense carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.77 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Fluminense and 1.11 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fluminense rate 1.02 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 0.99 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Fluminense against 1.11 for Santos. Fluminense's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.18 for Santos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fluminense at home · Santos away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fluminense 30, Santos 30.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Santos have let in 9 there.
Santos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Fluminense have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fluminense
- at Palmeiras22 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 19%
- at Chapecoense24 Oct · Serie Awin 51%
- vs Internacional28 Oct · Serie Awin 56%
- at Vitoria6 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Sao Paulo18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
Santos
- vs Bahia25 Oct · Serie Awin 44%
- vs Palmeiras28 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
- at RB Bragantino2 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- at Coritiba18 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Gremio22 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.