Leeds
vs
Manchester United
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Leeds 1–2 Manchester United
The model makes it 33% Leeds, 27% draw, 40% Manchester United — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Leeds 1.37, Manchester United 1.53.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Manchester United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leeds are 7th on 9 points from 6 games; Manchester United are 13th on 6 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Leeds have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Arsenal.
- Manchester United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tottenham.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester United 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 August 2026, ended Manchester United 1–1 Leeds.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leeds vs Manchester United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leeds vs Manchester United
Leeds
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
Manchester United
- D1-1Tottenham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fulham20 September 2026
- L0-1Manchester City13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
What these results say
- Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Leeds vs Manchester United
Leeds
- D. Jamesback injury
- J. Rodonmuscle injury
- M. Josephknee injury
Manchester United
- B. Seskoleg injury
- K. Mainooinjury
- L. Shawinjury
- M. Ugarteknee injury
- N. Mazraouiinjury
- P. Dorguhamstring injury
- T. Heatonabdominal strain
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leeds
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
Manchester United
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Manchester United
- 12 August 2026Manchester United 1–1 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 13 April 2026Manchester United 1–2 LeedsPremier League
- 4 January 2026Leeds 1–1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 19 July 2025Manchester United 0–0 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 12 July 2023Manchester United 2–0 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2023Leeds 0–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Manchester United
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin21
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Fernandes31
- B. Mbeumo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leeds carry a model rating of 6.96 against 7.08 for Manchester United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Leeds and 1.53 for Manchester United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leeds rate 0.99 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester United rate 1.36 and 0.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leeds, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leeds a 0.2% chance of the title and Manchester United 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Leeds against 1.53 for Manchester United. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.86 for Manchester United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leeds at home · Manchester United away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LeedsManchester United
Leeds are 5th after 6 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 8th so far); Manchester United are 12th after 6 (between 10th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Leeds 6, Manchester United 6.
Manchester United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Leeds have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leeds
- at Sunderland25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Bournemouth31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- vs Tottenham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Chelsea21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Coventry28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
Manchester United
- at Como21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 25%
- vs Bournemouth25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Chelsea31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs AS Roma3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- vs Aston Villa8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.