Nottingham Forest
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal
The model makes it 19% Nottingham Forest, 26% draw, 55% Arsenal — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.83, Arsenal 1.75.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Arsenal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nottingham Forest are 15th on 5 points from 6 games; Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Crystal Palace.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Leeds.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 55% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
Arsenal
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
What these results say
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nottingham Forest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Arsenal
Chance to win the league · 27% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- 17 January 2026Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
- 13 September 2025Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 26 February 2025Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
- 23 November 2024Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 30 January 2024Nottingham Forest 1–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 12 August 2023Arsenal 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest carry a model rating of 6.87 against 7.32 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.75 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nottingham Forest rate 0.92 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.40 and 0.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nottingham Forest a 0% chance of the title and Arsenal 27.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.75 for Arsenal. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/0.56 for Arsenal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nottingham Forest at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Nottingham ForestArsenal
Nottingham Forest are 14th after 6 Premier League matches (between 10th and 17th so far); Arsenal are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Nottingham Forest 6, Arsenal 6.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nottingham Forest
- at Ipswich23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Brentford31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Manchester City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Bournemouth21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Chelsea27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Arsenal
- at Bayern München21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- vs Everton24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- at Fleetwood Town27 Oct · League Cupwin 85%
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Slavia Praha4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.