Koper
vs
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Koper 2–0 Brinje-Grosuplje
The model makes it 60% Koper, 23% draw, 17% Brinje-Grosuplje — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Koper 2.19, Brinje-Grosuplje 0.95.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Koper: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Koper are 2nd on 19 points from 11 games; Brinje-Grosuplje are 8th on 11 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Koper have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Radomlje.
- Brinje-Grosuplje have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Maribor.
- Last 2 meetings: Koper 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Koper.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Koper vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Koper at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Koper vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Koper
- D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026
- W2-0Nafta19 September 2026
- L1-3Olimpija Ljubljana12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Celje6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aluminij28 August 2026
Brinje-Grosuplje
- L1-2Maribor11 October 2026
- W2-1Radomlje20 September 2026
- L1-2Nafta11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana5 September 2026
- W4-1Celje30 August 2026
What these results say
- Koper scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brinje-Grosuplje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Brinje-Grosuplje had three goals or more.
- Brinje-Grosuplje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Koper
Chance to finish in the top four · 81% today
Brinje-Grosuplje
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Koper vs Brinje-Grosuplje
- 2 August 2026Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Koper1. SNL
- 27 June 2024Koper 4–3 Brinje-GrosupljeFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Koper carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.26 for Brinje-Grosuplje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for Koper and 0.95 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Koper rate 0.70 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brinje-Grosuplje rate 0.59 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Koper a 16.7% chance of the title and Brinje-Grosuplje 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Koper the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Koper against 0.95 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Koper's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.92 for Brinje-Grosuplje.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Koper at home · Brinje-Grosuplje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Koper 11, Brinje-Grosuplje 11.
Koper score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Brinje-Grosuplje have let in 5 there.
Brinje-Grosuplje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Koper have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Koper
- vs Maribor27 Oct · 1. SNLwin 41%
- at Bravo2 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Mura7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 64%
- at Aluminij21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 38%
- vs Celje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
Brinje-Grosuplje
- vs Bravo29 Oct · 1. SNLwin 35%
- at Mura1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Aluminij7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 40%
- at Celje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 14%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.