Lechia Gdansk
vs
Arka Gdynia
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia
The model makes it 49% Lechia Gdansk, 25% draw, 26% Arka Gdynia — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lechia Gdansk 1.87, Arka Gdynia 1.20.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lechia Gdansk are 4th on 16 points from 10 games; Arka Gdynia are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Lechia Gdansk are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Stal Rzeszów.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Polonia Warszawa.
- Last 6 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia Gdansk.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lechia Gdansk at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
Lechia Gdansk
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
- W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
- D1-1Polonia Bytom30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lechia Gdansk
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 31% today
Arka Gdynia
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
- 27 February 2026Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
- 24 August 2025Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
- 19 May 2024Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 24 November 2023Arka Gdynia 1–0 Lechia GdanskI Liga
- 31 May 2020Lechia Gdansk 4–3 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
- 20 October 2019Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lechia Gdansk carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.44 for Arka Gdynia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.20 for Arka Gdynia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lechia Gdansk rate 0.77 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arka Gdynia rate 0.66 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lechia Gdansk a 31% chance of the title and Arka Gdynia 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk against 1.20 for Arka Gdynia. Lechia Gdansk's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.49 for Arka Gdynia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lechia Gdansk at home · Arka Gdynia away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Lechia Gdansk 10, Arka Gdynia 10.
Arka Gdynia score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Lechia Gdansk have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lechia Gdansk
- at Puszcza Niepołomice24 Oct · I Ligawin 42%
- vs Jagiellonia28 Oct · Cupwin 38%
- vs Unia Skierniewice31 Oct · I Ligawin 66%
- at Polonia Bytom8 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Odra Opole21 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
Arka Gdynia
- vs Nieciecza24 Oct · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Stal Rzeszów29 Oct · Cupwin 62%
- at Chrobry Głogów3 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- vs Podbeskidzie7 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.