Miedz Legnica
vs
Stal Mielec
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Miedz Legnica 2–1 Stal Mielec
The model makes it 53% Miedz Legnica, 24% draw, 23% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Miedz Legnica 2.08, Stal Mielec 1.18.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Miedz Legnica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Miedz Legnica are 8th on 14 points from 10 games; Stal Mielec are 14th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Miedz Legnica are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Odra Opole.
- Stal Mielec have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Warta Poznań.
- Last 6 meetings: Stal Mielec 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal Mielec.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Miedz Legnica at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec
Miedz Legnica
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
- L2-3Stal Rzeszów19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk13 September 2026
- D1-1Chrobry Głogów5 September 2026
- W2-1Warta Poznań30 August 2026
Stal Mielec
- W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Siedlce29 August 2026
What these results say
- Miedz Legnica conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Miedz Legnica
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
Stal Mielec
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec
- 2 May 2026Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal MielecI Liga
- 26 October 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 17 April 2023Stal Mielec 1–1 Miedz LegnicaEkstraklasa
- 2 October 2022Miedz Legnica 0–2 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
- 2 June 2020Miedz Legnica 1–2 Stal MielecI Liga
- 26 August 2019Stal Mielec 1–0 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Miedz Legnica carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.19 for Stal Mielec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.18 for Stal Mielec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Miedz Legnica rate 0.53 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stal Mielec rate 0.62 and 2.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Miedz Legnica a 2% chance of the title and Stal Mielec 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Miedz Legnica the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Miedz Legnica against 1.18 for Stal Mielec. Miedz Legnica's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.41 for Stal Mielec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Miedz Legnica at home · Stal Mielec away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Miedz Legnica 10, Stal Mielec 10.
Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 4 there.
Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Miedz Legnica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Miedz Legnica
- at Polonia Warszawa23 Oct · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Nieciecza31 Oct · I Ligawin 36%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice6 Nov · I Ligawin 30%
- vs ŁKS Łódź21 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- vs Polonia Bytom28 Nov · I Ligawin 47%
Stal Mielec
- vs Chrobry Głogów24 Oct · I Ligawin 41%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 Oct · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Ruch Chorzów8 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- at Polonia Warszawa21 Nov · I Ligawin 22%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice28 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.