Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
vs
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–1 Polonia Warszawa
The model makes it 48% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 26% draw, 26% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.75, Polonia Warszawa 1.17.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are top on 21 points from 10 games; Polonia Warszawa are 2nd on 17 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Chrobry Głogów.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Arka Gdynia.
- Last 6 meetings: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–2 Polonia Warszawa.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza28 August 2026
Polonia Warszawa
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
- L2-4Lechia Gdansk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Warszawa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
Polonia Warszawa
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
- 14 March 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 30 August 2025Polonia Warszawa 2–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
- 18 January 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–1 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
- 12 July 2024Polonia Warszawa 2–4 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
- 15 May 2021Polonia Warszawa 0–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiIII Liga - Group 1
- 3 April 2021Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–3 Polonia WarszawaIII Liga - Group 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.31 for Polonia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.17 for Polonia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki rate 0.60 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Warszawa rate 0.61 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 19.4% chance of the title and Polonia Warszawa 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki against 1.17 for Polonia Warszawa. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.79 for Polonia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home · Polonia Warszawa away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 10, Polonia Warszawa 10.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- at Ruch Chorzów25 Oct · I Ligawin 29%
- vs Stal Mielec30 Oct · I Ligawin 58%
- at Pogoń Siedlce8 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- vs Arka Gdynia21 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- at Podbeskidzie28 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
Polonia Warszawa
- vs Miedz Legnica23 Oct · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Korona Kielce29 Oct · Cupwin 29%
- at ŁKS Łódź2 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- at Warta Poznań7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.