Mura
vs
Nafta
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Mura 1–2 Nafta
The model makes it 33% Mura, 27% draw, 40% Nafta — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Mura 1.34, Nafta 1.52.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Nafta: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mura are 9th on 10 points from 11 games; Nafta are 4th on 16 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Mura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Nafta have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bravo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nafta 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Nafta 5–2 Mura.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mura vs Nafta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nafta at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mura vs Nafta
Mura
- D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
- D0-0Celje20 September 2026
- L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bravo29 August 2026
Nafta
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Koper19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 September 2026
- W3-1Radomlje4 September 2026
- L2-3Maribor30 August 2026
What these results say
- Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mura conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nafta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nafta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mura
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 81% today
Nafta
Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mura vs Nafta
- 1 August 2026Nafta 5–2 Mura1. SNL
- 3 December 2025Mura 1–2 NaftaCup
- 5 April 2025Nafta 4–2 Mura1. SNL
- 2 February 2025Mura 0–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 28 September 2024Nafta 0–0 Mura1. SNL
- 20 July 2024Mura 1–0 Nafta1. SNL
The two sides
Mura carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.39 for Nafta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Mura and 1.52 for Nafta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mura rate 0.53 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nafta rate 0.62 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mura a 0% chance of the title and Nafta 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nafta the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mura against 1.52 for Nafta. Mura's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.55 for Nafta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mura at home · Nafta away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Mura 11, Nafta 11.
Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Nafta have let in 3 there.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Mura have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mura
- at Radomlje27 Oct · 1. SNLwin 27%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 41%
- at Koper7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 15%
- vs Bravo21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 30%
- vs Maribor28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
Nafta
- vs Aluminij28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 47%
- at Celje1 Nov · 1. SNLwin 19%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
- at Maribor21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 20%
- at Radomlje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.