Aluminij
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Aluminij 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana
The model makes it 35% Aluminij, 30% draw, 35% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aluminij 1.21, Olimpija Ljubljana 1.20.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aluminij are 7th on 13 points from 11 games; Olimpija Ljubljana are 5th on 15 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Aluminij have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Celje.
- Olimpija Ljubljana have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Mura.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Aluminij.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aluminij at 35% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Aluminij
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Maribor19 September 2026
- W6-1away to Mura13 September 2026
- D0-0Bravo5 September 2026
- L0-2Celje2 September 2026
Olimpija Ljubljana
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radomlje29 August 2026
What these results say
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aluminij
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
Olimpija Ljubljana
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana
- 2 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Aluminij1. SNL
- 11 April 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 5 February 2026Aluminij 1–2 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 3 October 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 26 July 2025Aluminij 0–3 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 20 April 2024Olimpija Ljubljana 5–0 Aluminij1. SNL
The two sides
Aluminij carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.48 for Olimpija Ljubljana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Aluminij and 1.20 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aluminij rate 0.57 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpija Ljubljana rate 0.62 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olimpija Ljubljana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aluminij a 0.6% chance of the title and Olimpija Ljubljana 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aluminij the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Aluminij against 1.20 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Aluminij's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.31 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aluminij at home · Olimpija Ljubljana away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Aluminij 11, Olimpija Ljubljana 11.
Olimpija Ljubljana score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aluminij have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aluminij
- at Nafta28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 26%
- vs Radomlje31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 52%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Koper21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- at Bravo28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
Olimpija Ljubljana
- vs Celje28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 36%
- at Maribor31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 23%
- at Nafta7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 32%
- vs Radomlje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 60%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.