Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Levante
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Levante
The model makes it 48% Deportivo La Coruna, 25% draw, 27% Levante — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.87, Levante 1.29.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo La Coruna are 8th on 10 points from 8 games; Levante are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Real Sociedad.
- Levante are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Sevilla.
- Last 6 meetings: Levante 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2025, ended Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Levante.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 48% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
Levante
- D3-3Sevilla12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levante conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
- L. Amatuccisuspended (red card)
- M. Casadocollarbone injury
- P. Aubameyangknee injury
- Z. Eddahchouriwrist injury
Levante
- A. Primoshoulder injury
- H. Soteloknee injury
- K. Etta Eyongmuscle injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo La Coruna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Levante
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
- 25 January 2025Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 LevanteSegunda División
- 24 October 2024Levante 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 27 January 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–2 LevanteLa Liga
- 26 August 2017Levante 2–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 March 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 LevanteLa Liga
- 7 November 2015Levante 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Levante
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui31
- Iván Romero30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.78 for Levante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.29 for Levante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.99 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levante rate 1.01 and 1.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.29 for Levante. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.16 for Levante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo La Coruna at home · Levante away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Deportivo La CorunaLevante
Deportivo La Coruna are 8th after 8 La Liga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Levante are 17th after 7 (between 8th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Deportivo La Coruna 8, Levante 7.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Levante have let in 3 there.
Levante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo La Coruna
- at Atletico Madrid24 Oct · La Ligawin 16%
- vs Osasuna2 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
- at Espanyol7 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Alaves22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Barcelona29 Nov · La Ligawin 19%
Levante
- vs Athletic Club21 Oct · La Ligawin 40%
- at Real Sociedad25 Oct · La Ligawin 24%
- vs Atletico Madrid31 Oct · La Ligawin 26%
- at Celta Vigo8 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Elche22 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.