Villarreal
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 2–1 Elche
The model makes it 61% Villarreal, 21% draw, 18% Elche — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Villarreal 2.37, Elche 1.06.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Villarreal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Villarreal are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; Elche are 18th on 6 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Madrid.
- Elche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Celta Vigo.
- Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Villarreal 2–1 Elche.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Elche
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 61% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Elche
Villarreal
- L0-1away to Real Madrid10 October 2026
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
Elche
- D0-0Celta Vigo11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
- Elche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Villarreal vs Elche
Villarreal
- N. Pepeeye injury
- T. Buchananmuscle injury
- P. Gulacsipersonal reasonsDoubtful
Elche
No absences reported.
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Villarreal
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Elche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Elche
- 8 March 2026Villarreal 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 3 January 2026Elche 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 February 2023Elche 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 4 September 2022Villarreal 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 16 January 2022Elche 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 22 September 2021Villarreal 4–1 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Villarreal and Elche
Villarreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Gueye30
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.76 for Elche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for Villarreal and 1.06 for Elche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.29 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Elche rate 0.95 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Villarreal a 0.1% chance of the title and Elche 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.06 for Elche. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.13 for Elche.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Elche away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VillarrealElche
Villarreal are 10th after 8 La Liga matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Elche are 17th after 8 (between 7th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Villarreal 8, Elche 8.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Elche have let in 4 there.
Elche score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Villarreal have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- at Liverpool20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- at Valencia24 Oct · La Ligawin 45%
- vs Espanyol30 Oct · La Ligawin 59%
- vs Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Getafe8 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
Elche
- at Rayo Vallecano24 Oct · La Ligawin 27%
- vs Valencia1 Nov · La Ligawin 45%
- vs Real Betis8 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- at Levante22 Nov · La Ligawin 29%
- vs Atletico Madrid29 Nov · La Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.