Liverpool
vs
Villarreal
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 2–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 49% Liverpool, 23% draw, 28% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Liverpool 2.17, Villarreal 1.52.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Liverpool are 5th on 6 points from 2 games; Villarreal are 14th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Liverpool have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Manchester City.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Real Madrid.
- Last 4 meetings: Liverpool 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2022, ended Villarreal 2–3 Liverpool.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Villarreal
Liverpool
- W6-3away to Lask Linz14 October 2026
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Villarreal
- W3-1Napoli13 October 2026
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Villarreal
- 3 May 2022Villarreal 2–3 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
- 27 April 2022Liverpool 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- 5 May 2016Liverpool 3–0 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 28 April 2016Villarreal 1–0 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Villarreal
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- B. Barcola30
Villarreal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.04 against 7.03 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Liverpool and 1.52 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.23 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.29 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.52 for Villarreal. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.29/0.91 for Villarreal.
Season stats
Liverpool at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, this season — Liverpool in the Premier League, Villarreal in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Liverpool 6 in the Premier League, Villarreal 8 in the La Liga.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Villarreal have let in 1 there.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Liverpool have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Liverpool
- vs Brighton25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Chelsea28 Oct · League Cupwin 53%
- vs Arsenal1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Fenerbahçe4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 29%
- at Crystal Palace8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Villarreal
- at Valencia24 Oct · La Ligawin 45%
- vs Espanyol30 Oct · La Ligawin 59%
- vs Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Getafe8 Nov · La Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.