AS Roma
vs
Slovan Bratislava
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 3–0 Slovan Bratislava
The model makes it 84% AS Roma, 11% draw, 5% Slovan Bratislava — fair odds of 1.19, 9.09 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 3.64, Slovan Bratislava 0.66.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AS Roma are 25th on 1 point from 2 games; Slovan Bratislava are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Como.
- Slovan Bratislava are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Skalica.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 84% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma
- L3-4Real Madrid14 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
Slovan Bratislava
- L0-3VfB Stuttgart14 October 2026
- L1-6away to Paris Saint Germain9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen21
Slovan Bratislava
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.34 against 6.65 for Slovan Bratislava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.64 goals for AS Roma and 0.66 for Slovan Bratislava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.55 in attack and 0.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Bratislava rate 0.81 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.64 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.66 for Slovan Bratislava. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.21 for Slovan Bratislava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Slovan Bratislava away
League matches only, this season — AS Roma in the Serie A, Slovan Bratislava in the Super Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: AS Roma 6 in the Serie A, Slovan Bratislava 9 in the Super Liga.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Slovan Bratislava have let in 3 there.
Slovan Bratislava score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); AS Roma have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- at Napoli24 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Cagliari27 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
- at Udinese31 Oct · Serie Awin 59%
- at Manchester United3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
Slovan Bratislava
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica24 Oct · Super Ligawin 72%
- at AS Trencin28 Oct · Super Ligawin 57%
- at Podbrezová31 Oct · Super Ligawin 46%
- at Lask Linz3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.