El Geish
vs
Pyramids FC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: El Geish 0–1 Pyramids FC
The model makes it 16% El Geish, 27% draw, 57% Pyramids FC — fair odds of 6.25, 3.70 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: El Geish 0.62, Pyramids FC 1.64.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Pyramids FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- El Geish are 14th on 7 points from 6 games; Pyramids FC are top on 18 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- El Geish are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to National Bank of Egypt.
- Pyramids FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Ceramica Cleopatra.
- Last 6 meetings: Pyramids FC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2025, ended Pyramids FC 4–0 El Geish.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: El Geish vs Pyramids FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pyramids FC at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into El Geish vs Pyramids FC
El Geish
- L0-3away to National Bank of Egypt13 October 2026
- L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
Pyramids FC
- W4-1Ceramica Cleopatra12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Enppi17 September 2026
- W1-0El Gouna FC9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Al Masry31 August 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad27 August 2026
What these results say
- El Geish conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- El Geish failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pyramids FC won every one of these 5 matches.
- Pyramids FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
El Geish
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Pyramids FC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 49% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: El Geish vs Pyramids FC
- 27 September 2025Pyramids FC 4–0 El GeishPremier League
- 23 February 2025Pyramids FC 2–1 El GeishPremier League
- 11 August 2024El Geish 2–5 Pyramids FCPremier League
- 5 April 2024Pyramids FC 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 16 January 2024El Geish 2–2 Pyramids FCLeague Cup
- 14 July 2023Pyramids FC 4–2 El GeishPremier League
Leading scorers: El Geish and Pyramids FC
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Pyramids FC
GoalsAssists
- Youssef Obama21
- Nasser Maher20
- Odeh Al Fakhouri20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
El Geish carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.7 for Pyramids FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.62 goals for El Geish and 1.64 for Pyramids FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
El Geish rate 0.45 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pyramids FC rate 0.90 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives El Geish a 0% chance of the title and Pyramids FC 49.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pyramids FC the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.62 expected goals for El Geish against 1.64 for Pyramids FC. El Geish's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.22 for Pyramids FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
El Geish at home · Pyramids FC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: El Geish 6, Pyramids FC 6.
El Geish score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Pyramids FC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
El Geish
- at Al Ittihad Alexandria30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Future FC25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Wadi Degla8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Enppi16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Zamalek SC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Pyramids FC
- vs Wadi Degla29 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at Al Ahly23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Petrojet9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- vs National Bank of Egypt14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at Smouha SC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.