Al Masry
vs
Abu Qair Semad
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Al Masry 1–0 Abu Qair Semad
The model makes it 47% Al Masry, 30% draw, 23% Abu Qair Semad — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Al Masry 1.41, Abu Qair Semad 0.83.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al Masry: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Masry are 12th on 7 points from 6 games; Abu Qair Semad are 18th on 3 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Al Masry are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Olympic El Qanah.
- Abu Qair Semad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Asyut Petrol.
- Last 2 meetings: Al Masry 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 February 2022, ended Abu Qair Semad 1–1 Al Masry.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Masry at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
Al Masry
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah11 October 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026
- L0-1Pyramids FC31 August 2026
- W3-2away to El Mokawloon27 August 2026
Abu Qair Semad
- L1-2Asyut Petrol13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pyramids FC27 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Masry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Masry failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Masry
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Abu Qair Semad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
- 10 February 2022Abu Qair Semad 1–1 Al MasrySecond League - Group C
- 14 October 2021Al Masry 1–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League - Group C
Leading scorers: Al Masry and Abu Qair Semad
Al Masry
GoalsAssists
- Salah Mohsen20
Abu Qair Semad
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Masry carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.1 for Abu Qair Semad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Al Masry and 0.83 for Abu Qair Semad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Masry rate 0.63 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Abu Qair Semad rate 0.44 and 1.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Masry the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Masry against 0.83 for Abu Qair Semad. Al Masry's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.99 for Abu Qair Semad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Masry at home · Abu Qair Semad away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Al Masry 6, Abu Qair Semad 6.
Al Masry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Abu Qair Semad have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Masry
- at National Bank of Egypt28 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Asyut Petrol24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Zamalek SC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs El Gouna FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Abu Qair Semad
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Masr24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Smouha SC10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at El Gouna FC15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Wadi Degla22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.