Rodina Moskva
vs
FC Orenburg
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rodina Moskva 1–2 FC Orenburg
The model makes it 28% Rodina Moskva, 27% draw, 45% FC Orenburg — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rodina Moskva 1.17, FC Orenburg 1.61.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Orenburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rodina Moskva are 15th on 5 points from 10 games; FC Orenburg are 7th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Rodina Moskva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to CSKA Moscow.
- FC Orenburg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Dinamo Makhachkala.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Orenburg at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva
- L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
FC Orenburg
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
- D2-2Akron6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Orenburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rodina Moskva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 85% today
FC Orenburg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg
- 18 August 2026Rodina Moskva 1–4 FC OrenburgCup
Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
FC Orenburg
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rodina Moskva carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.25 for FC Orenburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.61 for FC Orenburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodina Moskva rate 0.47 in attack and 2.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Orenburg rate 0.48 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rodina Moskva a 0% chance of the title and FC Orenburg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Orenburg the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rodina Moskva against 1.61 for FC Orenburg. Rodina Moskva's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.62 for FC Orenburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rodina Moskva at home · FC Orenburg away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Rodina Moskva 10, FC Orenburg 10.
Rodina Moskva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Orenburg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rodina Moskva
- at Fakel24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs FC Krasnodar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Akhmat7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Lokomotiv22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at FC Orenburg29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
FC Orenburg
- at Akhmat23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs CSKA Moscow1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Krylia Sovetov8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Baltika21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Rodina Moskva29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.