El Gouna FC
vs
Smouha SC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: El Gouna FC 0–0 Smouha SC
The model makes it 32% El Gouna FC, 37% draw, 31% Smouha SC — fair odds of 3.13, 2.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (23%).
Expected goals: El Gouna FC 0.76, Smouha SC 0.73.
Both teams to score: 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 19%, under 2.5: 81%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: El Gouna FC and Smouha SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- El Gouna FC are 19th on 2 points from 6 games; Smouha SC are 13th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- El Gouna FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Al Ittihad Alexandria.
- Smouha SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ghazl El Mehalla.
- Last 6 meetings: El Gouna FC 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2025, ended Smouha SC 0–1 El Gouna FC.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
El Gouna FC
- L1-2away to Al Ittihad Alexandria13 October 2026
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
- L0-1El Mokawloon2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah28 August 2026
Smouha SC
- W1-0Ghazl El Mehalla12 October 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
What these results say
- El Gouna FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
El Gouna FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Smouha SC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
- 27 October 2025Smouha SC 0–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 28 April 2025El Gouna FC 1–1 Smouha SCPremier League
- 11 December 2024El Gouna FC 1–0 Smouha SCLeague Cup
- 1 December 2024Smouha SC 0–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 17 April 2024El Gouna FC 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 20 September 2023Smouha SC 1–1 El Gouna FCPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
El Gouna FC carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.31 for Smouha SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.76 goals for El Gouna FC and 0.73 for Smouha SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
El Gouna FC rate 0.48 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Smouha SC rate 0.45 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.76 expected goals for El Gouna FC against 0.73 for Smouha SC. El Gouna FC's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.4 for Smouha SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
El Gouna FC at home · Smouha SC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: El Gouna FC 6, Smouha SC 6.
El Gouna FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Smouha SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
El Gouna FC
- at Asyut Petrol30 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Zamalek SC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at National Bank of Egypt8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Abu Qair Semad15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Al Masry23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Smouha SC
- at Petrojet31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs National Bank of Egypt24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Abu Qair Semad10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Zamalek SC14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Pyramids FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.