Omonia Nicosia
vs
Olympiakos
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Olympiakos
The model makes it 73% Omonia Nicosia, 17% draw, 10% Olympiakos — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 2.65, Olympiakos 0.69.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Omonia Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Omonia Nicosia are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games; Olympiakos are 10th on 4 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Karmiotissa.
- Olympiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Aris.
- Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Omonia Nicosia 5–0 Olympiakos.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 73% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos
Omonia Nicosia
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
- W4-1Krasava Ypsonas20 September 2026
- D0-0Apollon Limassol12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Aris7 September 2026
- D0-0Omonia Aradippou31 August 2026
Olympiakos
- L1-2Aris11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Omonia Aradippou20 September 2026
- D3-3Omonia 29is Maiou13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pafos7 September 2026
- D3-3Nea Salamis28 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 11 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos
- 15 March 2026Omonia Nicosia 5–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 6 December 2025Olympiakos 0–3 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 20 February 2023Olympiakos 0–1 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 11 November 2022Omonia Nicosia 4–0 Olympiakos1. Division
- 20 May 2022Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Olympiakos1. Division
- 8 April 2022Olympiakos 3–0 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.54 for Olympiakos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.65 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 0.69 for Olympiakos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 1.18 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos rate 0.74 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 0.69 for Olympiakos. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 1.18/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.38 for Olympiakos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia Nicosia at home · Olympiakos away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Nicosia 5, Olympiakos 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Nicosia
- vs Benfica22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at AEK Larnaca26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs AEL31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 76%
- at NEC Nijmegen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Anorthosis8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 64%
Olympiakos
- vs Krasava Ypsonas24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 58%
- at Karmiotissa30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 38%
- vs Apollon Limassol7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- vs AEK Larnaca22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- at AEL27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.