Omonia Aradippou
vs
AEL
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Aradippou 1–0 AEL
The model makes it 41% Omonia Aradippou, 31% draw, 28% AEL — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Omonia Aradippou 1.26, AEL 0.94.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Omonia Aradippou are 8th on 6 points from 5 games; AEL are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Aradippou are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to AEK Larnaca.
- AEL are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Omonia 29is Maiou.
- Last 6 meetings: AEL 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Omonia Aradippou 0–3 AEL.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Aradippou at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
Omonia Aradippou
- L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026
- D1-1Olympiakos20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Karmiotissa12 September 2026
- W2-1Krasava Ypsonas5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia31 August 2026
AEL
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
- W2-0Anorthosis30 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Aradippou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Aradippou had two goals or fewer.
- AEL won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Omonia Aradippou | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
- 4 April 2026Omonia Aradippou 0–3 AEL1. Division
- 14 March 2026AEL 1–2 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 7 December 2025Omonia Aradippou 1–3 AEL1. Division
- 15 March 2025Omonia Aradippou 1–2 AEL1. Division
- 22 December 2024Omonia Aradippou 2–2 AEL1. Division
- 31 August 2024AEL 1–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Omonia Aradippou carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.47 for AEL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Omonia Aradippou and 0.94 for AEL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Aradippou rate 0.54 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEL rate 0.67 and 1.44.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AEL, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Aradippou the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Omonia Aradippou against 0.94 for AEL. Omonia Aradippou's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.44 for AEL.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia Aradippou at home · AEL away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Aradippou 5, AEL 5.
Omonia Aradippou score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); AEL have let in 3 there.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Omonia Aradippou have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Aradippou
- at Anorthosis24 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs Apoel Nicosia1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- at Nea Salamis6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Pafos21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- at Omonia 29is Maiou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 26%
AEL
- vs Aris25 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 38%
- at Omonia Nicosia31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 8%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- vs Olympiakos27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.