Bayer Leverkusen
vs
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg
The model makes it 49% Bayer Leverkusen, 23% draw, 28% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.24, SC Freiburg 1.58.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points from 5 games; SC Freiburg are top on 13 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Schalke 04.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
What these results say
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen
- C. Kofanemuscle injury
- E. Ben Seghirmuscle injury
- G. Douecalf injury
- K. Eichhornillness
- M. Culbreathfoot injury
SC Freiburg
- Y. Suzukisuspended (red card)
- J. BesteinjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
- 7 March 2026SC Freiburg 3–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 26 October 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 4 May 2025SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 21 December 2024Bayer Leverkusen 5–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
- 17 March 2024SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 29 October 2023Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick51
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki40
- I. Matanović31
- M. Eggestein30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bayer Leverkusen carry a model rating of 7.12 against 7.02 for SC Freiburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.58 for SC Freiburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.42 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Freiburg rate 1.21 and 0.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Freiburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.58 for SC Freiburg. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.42/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.86 for SC Freiburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bayer Leverkusen at home · SC Freiburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen are 4th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); SC Freiburg are 1st after 5 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Bayer Leverkusen 5, SC Freiburg 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bayer Leverkusen
- at OFI22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 62%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim25 Oct · Bundesligawin 55%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 74%
- vs VfB Stuttgart31 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- vs Marseille5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
SC Freiburg
- at Monaco22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs Bayern München25 Oct · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs VfL Wolfsburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 63%
- at FC Augsburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Trabzonspor5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.