Hamburger SV
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 25% Hamburger SV, 24% draw, 51% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.29, VfB Stuttgart 2.04.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: VfB Stuttgart are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hamburger SV are 12th on 6 points from 5 games; VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 6 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to SC Paderborn 07.
- Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 51% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hamburger SV had three goals or more.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
- M. Vuskovicdoping
- N. Remberginjury
- A. Gronbaekthigh injuryDoubtful
- A. Rossing-Lelesiitankle injuryDoubtful
- B. Jattagroin injuryDoubtful
- B. Nadirgroin injuryDoubtful
- P. Dakathigh injuryDoubtful
VfB Stuttgart
- A. Al Dakhilknee injury
- J. Diehlmuscle injury
- D. Zagadoumuscle injuryDoubtful
- M. Mittelstadtheel injuryDoubtful
- N. Narteymuscle injuryDoubtful
- T. Tomasmuscle injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
- 12 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 30 November 2025Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 5 June 2023Hamburger SV 1–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 1 June 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 August 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
- 28 May 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
The two sides
Hamburger SV carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.97 for VfB Stuttgart. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Hamburger SV and 2.04 for VfB Stuttgart. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hamburger SV rate 0.77 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfB Stuttgart rate 1.16 and 0.91.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 2.04 for VfB Stuttgart. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.91 for VfB Stuttgart.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hamburger SV at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV are 10th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 10th and 18th so far); VfB Stuttgart are 10th after 5 (between 7th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Hamburger SV 5, VfB Stuttgart 5.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); VfB Stuttgart have let in 1 there.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hamburger SV
- at SC Paderborn 0724 Oct · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 37%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt1 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach6 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
VfB Stuttgart
- vs Atletico Madrid20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach23 Oct · Bundesligawin 62%
- at SC Paderborn 0727 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 43%
- at Bayer Leverkusen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 25%
- at Galatasaray3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.