Arminia Bielefeld
vs
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
The model makes it 47% Arminia Bielefeld, 25% draw, 28% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.95, VfL Osnabrück 1.38.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arminia Bielefeld are 9th on 8 points from 7 games; VfL Osnabrück are 10th on 8 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Arminia Bielefeld have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to VfL Bochum.
- VfL Osnabrück are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dynamo Dresden.
- Last 6 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2025, ended VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arminia Bielefeld at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026
- D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
VfL Osnabrück
- D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
What these results say
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Osnabrück.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arminia Bielefeld
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
VfL Osnabrück
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
- 15 March 2025VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
- 20 October 2024Arminia Bielefeld 3–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 15 August 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 7 October 2019VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 18 February 2015VfL Osnabrück 0–4 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski51
VfL Osnabrück
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arminia Bielefeld carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.42 for VfL Osnabrück. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.38 for VfL Osnabrück. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.72 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Osnabrück rate 0.66 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arminia Bielefeld a 0.4% chance of the title and VfL Osnabrück 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arminia Bielefeld the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.38 for VfL Osnabrück. Arminia Bielefeld's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.57 for VfL Osnabrück.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arminia Bielefeld at home · VfL Osnabrück away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Arminia BielefeldVfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld are 8th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 17th so far); VfL Osnabrück are 8th after 7 (between 8th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Arminia Bielefeld 7, VfL Osnabrück 7.
Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); VfL Osnabrück have let in 3 there.
VfL Osnabrück score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Arminia Bielefeld have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arminia Bielefeld
- at Hertha BSC24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
- at Holstein Kiel7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
VfL Osnabrück
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at VfL Wolfsburg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 19%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
- at Karlsruher SC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Hannover 9628 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.