Karlsruher SC
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Karlsruher SC 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98
The model makes it 37% Karlsruher SC, 26% draw, 37% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.59, SV Darmstadt 98 1.58.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Karlsruher SC and SV Darmstadt 98 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Karlsruher SC are 17th on 5 points from 7 games; SV Darmstadt 98 are 14th on 7 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Karlsruher SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC St. Pauli.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Energie Cottbus.
- Last 6 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Karlsruher SC 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Karlsruher SC at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98
Karlsruher SC
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
- W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
What these results say
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Darmstadt 98 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Karlsruher SC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
SV Darmstadt 98
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98
- 3 May 2026Karlsruher SC 2–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 6 December 2025SV Darmstadt 98 3–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 7 March 2025SV Darmstadt 98 3–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 4 October 2024Karlsruher SC 3–3 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 22 July 2023Karlsruher SC 0–0 SV Darmstadt 98Friendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2023SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Karlsruher SC carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.42 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.58 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karlsruher SC rate 0.60 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.65 and 1.54.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SV Darmstadt 98, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karlsruher SC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Karlsruher SC against 1.58 for SV Darmstadt 98. Karlsruher SC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.54 for SV Darmstadt 98.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karlsruher SC at home · SV Darmstadt 98 away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Karlsruher SCSV Darmstadt 98
Karlsruher SC are 17th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); SV Darmstadt 98 are 13th after 7 (between 3rd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Karlsruher SC 7, SV Darmstadt 98 7.
SV Darmstadt 98 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Karlsruher SC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Karlsruher SC
- at 1. FC Magdeburg24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 19%
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 15%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- at VfL Bochum8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
- vs VfL Osnabrück22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
SV Darmstadt 98
- vs FC St. Pauli23 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- at SV Elversberg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 13%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 21%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.