1. FC Kaiserslautern
vs
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 VfL Bochum
The model makes it 42% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 32% draw, 26% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.18, VfL Bochum 0.81.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; VfL Bochum are 12th on 7 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to 1. FC Heidenheim.
- VfL Bochum are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
- Last 6 meetings: VfL Bochum 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended VfL Bochum 3–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
- W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC St. Pauli30 August 2026
VfL Bochum
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Chance to finish in the top four · 24% today
VfL Bochum
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum
- 7 March 2026VfL Bochum 3–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 4 October 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 3–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 13 April 2018VfL Bochum 3–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 3 November 2017FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 5 April 2017VfL Bochum 0–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 24 October 2016FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.48 for VfL Bochum. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 0.81 for VfL Bochum. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.56 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Bochum rate 0.56 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 1.9% chance of the title and VfL Bochum 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 0.81 for VfL Bochum. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.22 for VfL Bochum.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Kaiserslautern at home · VfL Bochum away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC KaiserslauternVfL Bochum
1. FC Kaiserslautern are 4th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); VfL Bochum are 12th after 7 (between 6th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 7, VfL Bochum 7.
1. FC Kaiserslautern score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 1 there.
VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); 1. FC Kaiserslautern have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- at 1. FC Nürnberg24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- at Hannover 9627 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 30%
- vs Hertha BSC31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- at VfL Osnabrück7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Dynamo Dresden22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
VfL Bochum
- vs VfL Wolfsburg23 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs FSV Mainz 0527 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 25%
- at Energie Cottbus30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Karlsruher SC8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at FC St. Pauli21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.