Fortuna Düsseldorf
vs
FC Saarbrücken
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 FC Saarbrücken
The model makes it 50% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 26% draw, 24% FC Saarbrücken — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.76, FC Saarbrücken 1.05.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortuna Düsseldorf are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; FC Saarbrücken are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Preußen Münster.
- FC Saarbrücken have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to MSV Duisburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
- D2-2Verl11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
FC Saarbrücken
- L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln10 October 2026
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
- L0-1FC Ingolstadt 0412 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Düsseldorf had three goals or more.
- FC Saarbrücken failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
FC Saarbrücken
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Saarbrücken
- 3 March 2020FC Saarbrücken 2–2 Fortuna DusseldorfDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Saarbrücken
Fortuna Düsseldorf
GoalsAssists
- E. Hottmann10
FC Saarbrücken
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.26 for FC Saarbrücken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.05 for FC Saarbrücken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Düsseldorf rate 0.58 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Saarbrücken rate 0.57 and 1.87.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Saarbrücken, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 6.6% chance of the title and FC Saarbrücken 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.05 for FC Saarbrücken. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.87 for FC Saarbrücken.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home · FC Saarbrücken away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Düsseldorf 9, FC Saarbrücken 9.
Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 4 there.
FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- at Hansa Rostock24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs SV Meppen30 Oct · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at FC Ingolstadt 047 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 60%
- at Würzburger Kickers28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
FC Saarbrücken
- at Havelse25 Oct · 3. Ligawin 43%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at FC Viktoria Köln6 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
- vs SV Wehen22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 46%
- vs Alemannia Aachen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.