SSV Jahn Regensburg
vs
SV Wehen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 SV Wehen
The model makes it 46% SSV Jahn Regensburg, 27% draw, 27% SV Wehen — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.67, SV Wehen 1.14.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are 17th on 9 points from 9 games; SV Wehen are 14th on 11 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Verl.
- SV Wehen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Alemannia Aachen.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 SV Wehen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026
- W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alemannia Aachen12 September 2026
SV Wehen
- W3-0Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- W4-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0411 October 2026
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
- L0-1Waldhof Mannheim13 September 2026
What these results say
- SSV Jahn Regensburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for SSV Jahn Regensburg had three goals or more.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Wehen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | SV Wehen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
SV Wehen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen
- 21 February 2026SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 16 September 2025SV Wehen 2–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
- 28 May 2024SV Wehen 1–2 Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga
- 24 May 2024Jahn Regensburg 2–2 SV Wehen2. Bundesliga
- 23 December 2020SV Wehen 0–0 Jahn RegensburgDFB Pokal
- 15 February 2020Jahn Regensburg 1–0 SV Wehen2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen
SSV Jahn Regensburg
GoalsAssists
- N. Boujellab31
- L. Hermes12
- O. Schönfelder10
SV Wehen
GoalsAssists
- R. Massimo11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.22 for SV Wehen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.14 for SV Wehen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.59 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Wehen rate 0.49 and 1.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SV Wehen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 0.5% chance of the title and SV Wehen 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.14 for SV Wehen. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.74 for SV Wehen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SSV Jahn Regensburg at home · SV Wehen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SSV Jahn Regensburg 9, SV Wehen 9.
SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); SV Wehen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- at Rot-Weiß Essen23 Oct · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Hansa Rostock31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at SV Meppen8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Würzburger Kickers21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0429 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
SV Wehen
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 52%
- at Verl31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Havelse7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 57%
- at FC Saarbrücken22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs SV Meppen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.